{"id":938,"date":"2012-02-19T11:24:00","date_gmt":"2012-02-19T11:24:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/noi3.org\/site\/?p=938"},"modified":"2018-11-13T08:51:10","modified_gmt":"2018-11-13T08:51:10","slug":"cu-cat-a-crescut-economia-anul-trecut-si-ce-inseamna-asta-pentru-omul-de-pe-strada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/site.noi3.org\/?p=938","title":{"rendered":"Cu c\u00e2t a crescut economia anul trecut \u015fi ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 asta pentru omul de pe strad\u0103?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Institutul Na\u0163ional de Statistic\u0103 public\u0103 ast\u0103zi datele privind evolu\u0163ia Produsului Intern Brut \u00een 2011. O cre\u015ftere apropiat\u0103 de 2,5% sau chiar mai mare nu ar mai mira pe nimeni. R\u0103m\u00e2n \u00eens\u0103 dou\u0103 \u00eentreb\u0103ri: ce efecte a avut cre\u015fterea economic\u0103 \u00een Rom\u00e2nia real\u0103 \u015fi ce urmeaz\u0103 \u00een 2012 dup\u0103 un an peste a\u015ftept\u0103ri?<\/p>\n

Cre\u015fterea economic\u0103 a Rom\u00e2niei a dep\u0103\u015fit, anul trecut, toate previziunile ini\u0163iale, arat\u0103 ultimele estim\u0103ri ale speciali\u015ftilor. <\/p>\n

Institutul Na\u0163ional de Statistic\u0103 ar urma s\u0103 anun\u0163e ast\u0103zi  un avans al PIB de cel pu\u0163in 2% \u015fi cel mult 3%, semnificativ mai mare dec\u00e2t estim\u0103rile ini\u0163iale care vedeau o cre\u015ftere de maximum 1,3-1,5%. Dintre b\u0103nci, cea mai optimist\u0103 prognoz\u0103 o are ING care vede o cre\u015ftere \u00een jurul a trei procente.<\/p>\n

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Fostul premierul Emil Boc vedea o cifr\u0103 \u00eentre 2 \u015fi 2,5% \u00een timp ce ultima prognoz\u0103 a FMI plaseaz\u0103 cre\u015fterea la 2%. Cauzele acestei cre\u015fteri peste a\u015ftept\u0103ri le explic\u0103 economistul Lucian Isar. \u201cSurpriza economic\u0103 \u00een 2011 este datorat\u0103 unui an agricol excep\u0163ional \u015fi unei corec\u0163ii tehnice datorit\u0103 c\u0103derii masive din anii anteriori\u201d, spune Isar care subliniaz\u0103 \u00eens\u0103 c\u0103 avansul din 2011 nu a fost unul \u201c care s\u0103 genereze noi locuri de munc\u0103\u201d.<\/p>\n

Reversul medaliei. 2012 \u201cpe muchie\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tocmai cele dou\u0103 motive de cre\u015ftere din 2011 adic\u0103 aportul agriculturii \u015fi efectul de baz\u0103( raportarea la un an foarte slab) ar putea deveni factori care s\u0103 contribuie la realizarea unei cre\u015fteri marginale \u00een 2012 care ar echivala cu o stagnare economic\u0103.<\/p>\n

Problemele din zona euro r\u0103m\u00e2n \u00eens\u0103 principalul motiv de \u00eengrijorare.<\/p>\n

\u201cVedem o cre\u015ftere de numai 0,8% (ce include o contrac\u0163ie \u00een prima parte a anului), majorarea cheltuielilor publice nefiind probabil capabil\u0103 s\u0103 compenseze \u015focul provocat de contrac\u0163ia zonei euro\u201d, spune Vlad Muscalu, economistul \u015fef al ING. De altfel absolut toat\u0103 lumea \u015fi-a revizuit recent prognozele privind cre\u015fterea din 2012 ca urmare a \u00eenr\u0103ut\u0103\u0163irii situa\u0163iei din zona euro(principalul partener comercial al Rom\u00e2niei).<\/p>\n

Mai optimist\u0103 dec\u00e2t to\u0163i, Banca Mondial\u0103 vorbe\u015fte despre o cre\u015ftere de 1,5% fa\u0163\u0103 de 3,7% c\u00e2t era prognoza ini\u0163ial\u0103. BERD vede cre\u015fterea undeva la 0,8% fa\u0163\u0103 de 1,1%, FMI la \u00eentre 1 \u015fi 1,5% fa\u0163\u0103 de 1,8- 2,3% \u00een timp ce b\u0103ncile plaseaz\u0103 cre\u015fterea la doar 0,5% fa\u0163\u0103 de 1,5-2%.<\/p>\n

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Articol preluat din revista <\/a>Capital[1]<\/sup><\/small><\/a><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Be the first to like this post.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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References<\/h3>\n
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  1. ^<\/a><\/sup><\/small> <\/a>Capital (www.capital.ro)<\/small><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n

    Authors: George GMT<\/p>\n

    Articolul original<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Institutul Na\u0163ional de Statistic\u0103 public\u0103 ast\u0103zi datele privind evolu\u0163ia Produsului Intern Brut \u00een 2011. O cre\u015ftere apropiat\u0103 de 2,5% sau chiar mai mare nu…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-938","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economie"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.noi3.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/938","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.noi3.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.noi3.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.noi3.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.noi3.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=938"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/site.noi3.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/938\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7135,"href":"https:\/\/site.noi3.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/938\/revisions\/7135"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.noi3.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=938"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.noi3.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=938"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.noi3.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=938"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}